Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.023633 0.026863 0.030388 0.034521 0.039239 0.044461 0.050683
2025-02-16 0.018295 0.022639 0.027808 0.034421 0.042677 0.052665 0.065700
2025-02-23 0.015486 0.020292 0.026354 0.034584 0.045504 0.059546 0.079061
2025-03-02 0.013291 0.018243 0.024793 0.034124 0.047139 0.064736 0.090491
2025-03-09 0.012000 0.017149 0.024246 0.034792 0.050157 0.071869 0.105129
2025-03-16 0.010669 0.015799 0.023133 0.034445 0.051578 0.076757 0.116934
2025-03-23 0.009958 0.015239 0.023046 0.035513 0.055091 0.084934 0.134402
2025-03-30 0.008824 0.013906 0.021650 0.034407 0.055103 0.087708 0.143652
2025-04-06 0.008003 0.012965 0.020743 0.033938 0.056008 0.091878 0.155467
2025-04-13 0.007127 0.011842 0.019431 0.032656 0.055416 0.093490 0.163072
2025-04-20 0.006816 0.011615 0.019541 0.033731 0.058850 0.102102 0.183585
2025-04-27 0.006503 0.011349 0.019551 0.034618 0.062017 0.110512 0.204564
2025-05-04 0.006217 0.011114 0.019611 0.035628 0.065558 0.120030 0.228844
2025-05-11 0.005761 0.010536 0.019017 0.035401 0.066818 0.125534 0.246170
2025-05-18 0.005411 0.010116 0.018665 0.035575 0.068827 0.132594 0.267251
2025-05-25 0.005009 0.009560 0.018010 0.035102 0.069519 0.137156 0.283757
2025-06-01 0.004792 0.009337 0.017956 0.035789 0.072561 0.146621 0.311399
2025-06-08 0.004470 0.008878 0.017409 0.035431 0.073435 0.151760 0.330379
2025-06-15 0.004337 0.008786 0.017570 0.036532 0.077435 0.163742 0.365590
2025-06-22 0.003980 0.008204 0.016700 0.035393 0.076552 0.165256 0.377483
2025-06-29 0.003719 0.007802 0.016162 0.034909 0.077035 0.169756 0.396675
2025-07-06 0.003403 0.007255 0.015276 0.033590 0.075532 0.169694 0.405104
2025-07-13 0.003328 0.007221 0.015478 0.034697 0.079630 0.182696 0.446407